![]() And, as might be expected, the judgement on Biden is deeply partisan: 86% of Democrats approve and 90% of Republicans disapprove. Just four in ten approve of Biden’s job as President, after he received 51% of the popular vote in November 2020. Public disgruntlement has led voters to turn on President Joe Biden less than a year after his inauguration. Ominously for Democrats, when the public is asked whether they think a list of problems will be better or worse a year from now, as Americans go to the polls, a majority say inflation will be worse and a plurality think both the economy and border security will be worse. And, drawing on the Trump playbook, they will attack rising illegal immigration. They will contend that Biden’s efforts to contain Covid-19 are an attack on Americans’ freedom. They will blame higher prices on out-of-control government spending, labeling it a Socialist agenda, always a potent smear in US politics. They will hammer Democrats’ inability to contain inflation, which at 6.2% is at its highest level since 1990. Such laser focus reflects Democrats’ belief that unless Covid-19 can be contained, pandemic fatigue will drive frustrated voters to seek a change in the November 2022 elections.įor their part, Republicans think a smorgasbord of national issues are their path to victory in the upcoming Congressional elections. So how people vote in 2022 may depend on whether the election campaign is framed by personal or national concerns.įour days before Christmas, President Biden spent half an hour on national television laying out his administration’s extensive plans to cope with the rapidly spreading Omicron Covid-19 variant. Yet when queried about the biggest concern for their family, 18% say Covid-19, 14% mention inflation, but only 1% cite immigration. But only 1% say foreign policy and none say China or trade. When asked what is the most important priority for the country, people say it is immigration (13%), inflation (10%), the economy (11%), or Covid-19 (5%). Notably, the nature of public discontent depends on how the question is phrased. ![]() How people vote in 2022 may depend on whether the election campaign is framed by personal or national concerns. In December 2017, a similar majority of the public thought the nation was going downhill, and a year later, in the 2018 Congressional elections, the Democrats picked up 41 seats and took control of the House of Representatives. Such sentiment is deeply partisan: six in ten Democrats are upbeat more than nine in ten Republicans are downbeat. Two in three Americans (66%) say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Such volatility is attributable to a pervasive sour mood, the hyper-polarization of US politics, and the public’s desire for immediate gratification from the electoral process. In the most recent 11 elections, control shifted nine times. In the 12 national elections between 19, control of the White House, the Senate and/or the House of Representatives changed party control just four times. History and recent public opinion polling suggest change is likely, in part because the US political system is increasingly volatile. Democrats presently hold only an eight-vote majority in the House, which means just five seats would have to change hands for the Republicans to take control. The Senate is evenly divided 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, with US Vice President Kamala Harris empowered by the Constitution to break all ties. ![]() But because the stakes are so high-both for the United States and its allies-and because the press and Washington dinner parties are already consumed by such speculation, an early assessment of the US political landscape is in order.ĭemocrats now control both the Senate and the House, albeit with razor-thin majorities. ![]() Too much could change in the next 10 months: inflation could spiral out of control, Covid-19 could run rampant, and there are potential conflicts with China or Russia. ![]()
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